RBL vs SCF
RB Leipzig (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 56.5% fair 1.77
Draw 19.9% fair 5.03
SCF win 23.6% fair 4.24
Expected Goals
RBL
2.34
—
1.43
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.6% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.4% | fair 3.65 |
| Both teams to score | 68.6% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 SCF | 9.0% | |
| RBL 1-1 SCF | 7.7% | |
| RBL 3-1 SCF | 7.1% | |
| RBL 2-2 SCF | 6.4% | |
| RBL 2-0 SCF | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).