RBL vs BMG
RB Leipzig (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RBL win 59.4% fair 1.68
Draw 20.2% fair 4.95
BMG win 20.4% fair 4.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.8% / 19.6% / 18.6%.
Expected Goals
RBL
2.23
—
1.15
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.5% | fair 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 BMG | 9.7% | |
| RBL 1-1 BMG | 8.7% | |
| RBL 2-0 BMG | 8.5% | |
| RBL 1-0 BMG | 7.6% | |
| RBL 3-1 BMG | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).