RBL vs HSV
RB Leipzig (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
RBL win 59.7% fair 1.68
Draw 20.2% fair 4.96
HSV win 20.1% fair 4.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.1% / 19.6% / 18.3%.
Expected Goals
RBL
2.23
—
1.13
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.8% | fair 2.87 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 HSV | 9.8% | |
| RBL 1-1 HSV | 8.8% | |
| RBL 2-0 HSV | 8.6% | |
| RBL 1-0 HSV | 7.8% | |
| RBL 3-1 HSV | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).