RBL vs TSG
RB Leipzig (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 55.7% fair 1.79
Draw 19.4% fair 5.15
TSG win 24.9% fair 4.02
Expected Goals
RBL
2.47
—
1.59
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.1% | fair 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.9% | fair 4.36 |
| Both teams to score | 72.9% | fair 1.37 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 TSG | 8.4% | |
| RBL 3-1 TSG | 6.9% | |
| RBL 1-1 TSG | 6.8% | |
| RBL 2-2 TSG | 6.6% | |
| RBL 3-2 TSG | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).