RBL vs KOE
RB Leipzig (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 66.1% fair 1.51
Draw 17.3% fair 5.77
KOE win 16.6% fair 6.03
Expected Goals
RBL
2.64
—
1.17
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.3% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.7% | fair 3.75 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 KOE | 9.0% | |
| RBL 3-1 KOE | 7.9% | |
| RBL 2-0 KOE | 7.7% | |
| RBL 1-1 KOE | 6.8% | |
| RBL 3-0 KOE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).