RBL vs B04
RB Leipzig (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 49.6% fair 2.02
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
B04 win 29.9% fair 3.35
Expected Goals
RBL
2.25
—
1.72
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.7% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.3% | fair 4.12 |
| Both teams to score | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 B04 | 8.2% | |
| RBL 1-1 B04 | 7.3% | |
| RBL 2-2 B04 | 7.1% | |
| RBL 1-2 B04 | 6.3% | |
| RBL 3-1 B04 | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).