RBL vs M05
RB Leipzig (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RBL win 58.3% fair 1.72
Draw 20.6% fair 4.85
M05 win 21.1% fair 4.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.4% / 20.1% / 19.4%.
Expected Goals
RBL
2.17
—
1.15
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 M05 | 9.8% | |
| RBL 1-1 M05 | 9.0% | |
| RBL 2-0 M05 | 8.5% | |
| RBL 1-0 M05 | 7.8% | |
| RBL 3-1 M05 | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).