RBL vs M05
RB Leipzig (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 63.5% fair 1.57
Draw 18.1% fair 5.54
M05 win 18.4% fair 5.43
Expected Goals
RBL
2.58
—
1.26
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.7% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.3% | fair 3.80 |
| Both teams to score | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 M05 | 9.0% | |
| RBL 3-1 M05 | 7.8% | |
| RBL 2-0 M05 | 7.2% | |
| RBL 1-1 M05 | 7.0% | |
| RBL 3-0 M05 | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).