RBL vs SCP
RB Leipzig (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 67.9% fair 1.47
Draw 16.8% fair 5.94
SCP win 15.2% fair 6.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.4% / 15.5% / 12.1%.
Expected Goals
RBL
2.69
—
1.04
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.0% | fair 3.57 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 SCP | 9.0% | |
| RBL 2-0 SCP | 8.7% | |
| RBL 3-1 SCP | 8.1% | |
| RBL 3-0 SCP | 7.8% | |
| RBL 1-1 SCP | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).