RBL vs S04
RB Leipzig (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 65.0% fair 1.54
Draw 18.5% fair 5.40
S04 win 16.5% fair 6.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.8% / 17.5% / 13.7%.
Expected Goals
RBL
2.41
—
0.98
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.2% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-0 S04 | 9.8% | |
| RBL 2-1 S04 | 9.6% | |
| RBL 1-0 S04 | 8.1% | |
| RBL 1-1 S04 | 8.0% | |
| RBL 3-0 S04 | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).