RBL vs VFB
RB Leipzig (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 53.5% fair 1.87
Draw 20.2% fair 4.94
VFB win 26.3% fair 3.80
Expected Goals
RBL
2.31
—
1.56
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.1% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.9% | fair 3.86 |
| Both teams to score | 71.0% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 VFB | 8.7% | |
| RBL 1-1 VFB | 7.5% | |
| RBL 2-2 VFB | 6.8% | |
| RBL 3-1 VFB | 6.7% | |
| RBL 1-2 VFB | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).