RBL vs FCU
RB Leipzig (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 68.5% fair 1.46
Draw 16.7% fair 5.99
FCU win 14.8% fair 6.75
Expected Goals
RBL
2.67
—
1.07
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.9% | fair 3.59 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 FCU | 9.1% | |
| RBL 2-0 FCU | 8.5% | |
| RBL 3-1 FCU | 8.1% | |
| RBL 3-0 FCU | 7.6% | |
| RBL 1-1 FCU | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).