B04 vs FCA
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 60.2% fair 1.66
Draw 18.7% fair 5.36
FCA win 21.1% fair 4.74
Expected Goals
B04
2.55
—
1.41
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.5% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.5% | fair 4.09 |
| Both teams to score | 69.6% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 FCA | 8.7% | |
| B04 3-1 FCA | 7.4% | |
| B04 1-1 FCA | 6.9% | |
| B04 2-0 FCA | 6.2% | |
| B04 2-2 FCA | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).