B04 vs BAY
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 24.2% fair 4.13
Draw 18.8% fair 5.33
BAY win 57.0% fair 1.75
Expected Goals
B04
1.56
—
2.56
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.9% | fair 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.1% | fair 4.53 |
| Both teams to score | 72.9% | fair 1.37 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 1-2 BAY | 8.3% | |
| B04 1-3 BAY | 7.1% | |
| B04 2-2 BAY | 6.5% | |
| B04 1-1 BAY | 6.5% | |
| B04 2-3 BAY | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).