B04 vs SVW
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 63.3% fair 1.58
Draw 18.2% fair 5.49
SVW win 18.5% fair 5.41
Expected Goals
B04
2.55
—
1.24
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.9% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.1% | fair 3.69 |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 SVW | 9.1% | |
| B04 3-1 SVW | 7.7% | |
| B04 2-0 SVW | 7.3% | |
| B04 1-1 SVW | 7.2% | |
| B04 3-0 SVW | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).