B04 vs BVB
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 37.8% fair 2.64
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
BVB win 38.7% fair 2.59
Expected Goals
B04
1.57
—
1.62
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 1-1 BVB | 10.5% | |
| B04 1-2 BVB | 8.5% | |
| B04 2-1 BVB | 8.2% | |
| B04 2-2 BVB | 6.7% | |
| B04 0-1 BVB | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).