B04 vs ELV
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 65.7% fair 1.52
Draw 17.0% fair 5.87
ELV win 17.2% fair 5.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.8% / 15.7% / 14.5%.
Expected Goals
B04
2.80
—
1.25
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.9% | fair 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.1% | fair 4.34 |
| Both teams to score | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 ELV | 8.5% | |
| B04 3-1 ELV | 8.0% | |
| B04 2-0 ELV | 6.8% | |
| B04 3-0 ELV | 6.4% | |
| B04 1-1 ELV | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).