B04 vs SGE
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 62.9% fair 1.59
Draw 17.4% fair 5.74
SGE win 19.7% fair 5.08
Expected Goals
B04
2.80
—
1.48
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.9% | fair 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.1% | fair 4.98 |
| Both teams to score | 72.4% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 SGE | 8.1% | |
| B04 3-1 SGE | 7.5% | |
| B04 2-2 SGE | 5.9% | |
| B04 1-1 SGE | 5.8% | |
| B04 3-2 SGE | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).