B04 vs SCF
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
B04 win 57.9% fair 1.73
Draw 19.7% fair 5.06
SCF win 22.3% fair 4.47
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.9% / 19.1% / 21.0%.
Expected Goals
B04
2.36
—
1.35
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.2% | fair 3.54 |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 SCF | 9.2% | |
| B04 1-1 SCF | 7.8% | |
| B04 3-1 SCF | 7.2% | |
| B04 2-0 SCF | 6.8% | |
| B04 2-2 SCF | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).