B04 vs SCF
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.03
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
B04 win 58.8% fair 1.70
Draw 18.7% fair 5.36
SCF win 22.5% fair 4.44
Expected Goals
B04
2.60
—
1.53
SCF
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): B04 ×1.100 (matched 10), SCF ×1.026 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.0% | fair 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.0% | fair 4.55 |
| Both teams to score | 72.5% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 SCF | 8.3% | |
| B04 3-1 SCF | 7.2% | |
| B04 1-1 SCF | 6.4% | |
| B04 2-2 SCF | 6.4% | |
| B04 3-2 SCF | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).