B04 vs BMG
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
B04 win 60.1% fair 1.66
Draw 20.1% fair 4.98
BMG win 19.8% fair 5.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.5% / 19.5% / 18.0%.
Expected Goals
B04
2.23
—
1.12
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 BMG | 9.8% | |
| B04 1-1 BMG | 8.8% | |
| B04 2-0 BMG | 8.7% | |
| B04 1-0 BMG | 7.8% | |
| B04 3-1 BMG | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).