B04 vs BMG
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 67.3% fair 1.49
Draw 16.7% fair 6.00
BMG win 16.0% fair 6.25
Expected Goals
B04
2.77
—
1.21
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.8% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.2% | fair 4.14 |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 BMG | 8.7% | |
| B04 3-1 BMG | 8.0% | |
| B04 2-0 BMG | 7.2% | |
| B04 3-0 BMG | 6.6% | |
| B04 1-1 BMG | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).