B04 vs HSV
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 64.1% fair 1.56
Draw 18.6% fair 5.37
HSV win 17.3% fair 5.79
Expected Goals
B04
2.41
—
1.08
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.3% | fair 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 HSV | 9.6% | |
| B04 2-0 HSV | 8.8% | |
| B04 1-1 HSV | 8.0% | |
| B04 3-1 HSV | 7.7% | |
| B04 1-0 HSV | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).