B04 vs TSG
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 52.5% fair 1.90
Draw 20.0% fair 4.99
TSG win 27.4% fair 3.64
Expected Goals
B04
2.36
—
1.66
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.4% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.6% | fair 4.23 |
| Both teams to score | 73.3% | fair 1.37 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 TSG | 8.3% | |
| B04 1-1 TSG | 7.1% | |
| B04 2-2 TSG | 6.9% | |
| B04 3-1 TSG | 6.5% | |
| B04 1-2 TSG | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).