B04 vs KOE
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 63.3% fair 1.58
Draw 18.3% fair 5.46
KOE win 18.4% fair 5.43
Expected Goals
B04
2.52
—
1.22
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.9% | fair 3.59 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 KOE | 9.2% | |
| B04 3-1 KOE | 7.7% | |
| B04 2-0 KOE | 7.5% | |
| B04 1-1 KOE | 7.3% | |
| B04 3-0 KOE | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).