B04 vs RBL
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 2-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.00
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
B04 win 49.3% fair 2.03
Draw 20.3% fair 4.93
RBL win 30.4% fair 3.29
Expected Goals
B04
2.31
—
1.79
RBL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): B04 ×1.100 (matched 10), RBL ×0.998 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.6% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.4% | fair 4.45 |
| Both teams to score | 75.0% | fair 1.33 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 RBL | 7.9% | |
| B04 2-2 RBL | 7.1% | |
| B04 1-1 RBL | 6.9% | |
| B04 1-2 RBL | 6.1% | |
| B04 3-1 RBL | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).