B04 vs RBL
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
B04 win 46.9% fair 2.13
Draw 21.5% fair 4.66
RBL win 31.7% fair 3.16
Expected Goals
B04
2.07
—
1.67
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.9% | fair 3.58 |
| Both teams to score | 70.9% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 RBL | 8.5% | |
| B04 1-1 RBL | 8.2% | |
| B04 2-2 RBL | 7.1% | |
| B04 1-2 RBL | 6.9% | |
| B04 3-1 RBL | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).