B04 vs M05
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 60.6% fair 1.65
Draw 19.0% fair 5.27
M05 win 20.4% fair 4.90
Expected Goals
B04
2.46
—
1.31
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.6% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.4% | fair 3.65 |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 M05 | 9.1% | |
| B04 3-1 M05 | 7.5% | |
| B04 1-1 M05 | 7.4% | |
| B04 2-0 M05 | 7.0% | |
| B04 2-2 M05 | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).