B04 vs SCP
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 65.4% fair 1.53
Draw 17.8% fair 5.61
SCP win 16.7% fair 5.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.4% / 16.7% / 13.9%.
Expected Goals
B04
2.57
—
1.08
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.6% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.4% | fair 3.40 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 SCP | 9.3% | |
| B04 2-0 SCP | 8.6% | |
| B04 3-1 SCP | 7.9% | |
| B04 3-0 SCP | 7.3% | |
| B04 1-1 SCP | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).