B04 vs SCP
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
B04 win 66.7% fair 1.50
Draw 16.8% fair 5.94
SCP win 16.4% fair 6.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.5% / 15.0% / 12.4%.
Expected Goals
B04
2.83
—
1.13
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.6% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.4% | fair 4.10 |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 SCP | 8.6% | |
| B04 3-1 SCP | 8.1% | |
| B04 2-0 SCP | 7.6% | |
| B04 3-0 SCP | 7.2% | |
| B04 1-1 SCP | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).