B04 vs S04
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 62.5% fair 1.60
Draw 19.5% fair 5.14
S04 win 18.0% fair 5.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 65.8% / 18.7% / 15.5%.
Expected Goals
B04
2.29
—
1.03
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 S04 | 9.8% | |
| B04 2-0 S04 | 9.5% | |
| B04 1-1 S04 | 8.5% | |
| B04 1-0 S04 | 8.3% | |
| B04 3-1 S04 | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).