B04 vs VFB
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
B04 win 50.3% fair 1.99
Draw 20.8% fair 4.81
VFB win 28.9% fair 3.46
Expected Goals
B04
2.20
—
1.62
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.6% | fair 3.76 |
| Both teams to score | 71.3% | fair 1.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 VFB | 8.6% | |
| B04 1-1 VFB | 7.8% | |
| B04 2-2 VFB | 7.0% | |
| B04 1-2 VFB | 6.3% | |
| B04 3-1 VFB | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).