B04 vs VFB
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
B04 win 48.8% fair 2.05
Draw 20.7% fair 4.84
VFB win 30.5% fair 3.28
Expected Goals
B04
2.23
—
1.73
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.7% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.3% | fair 4.11 |
| Both teams to score | 73.5% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 VFB | 8.2% | |
| B04 1-1 VFB | 7.3% | |
| B04 2-2 VFB | 7.1% | |
| B04 1-2 VFB | 6.4% | |
| B04 3-1 VFB | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).