B04 vs FCU
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
B04 win 61.6% fair 1.62
Draw 19.1% fair 5.23
FCU win 19.3% fair 5.19
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.3% / 18.4% / 17.3%.
Expected Goals
B04
2.40
—
1.18
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.6% | fair 3.27 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 FCU | 9.5% | |
| B04 2-0 FCU | 8.0% | |
| B04 1-1 FCU | 7.9% | |
| B04 3-1 FCU | 7.6% | |
| B04 1-0 FCU | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).