B04 vs FCU
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 4-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
B04 win 61.0% fair 1.64
Draw 19.0% fair 5.26
FCU win 20.0% fair 5.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.5% / 18.3% / 18.2%.
Expected Goals
B04
2.45
—
1.26
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.6% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.4% | fair 3.52 |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 2-1 FCU | 9.3% | |
| B04 1-1 FCU | 7.6% | |
| B04 3-1 FCU | 7.6% | |
| B04 2-0 FCU | 7.4% | |
| B04 1-0 FCU | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).