M05 vs FCA
Mainz 05 (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 44.1% fair 2.27
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
FCA win 33.5% fair 2.98
Expected Goals
M05
1.87
—
1.61
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.5% | fair 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 FCA | 9.3% | |
| M05 2-1 FCA | 8.7% | |
| M05 1-2 FCA | 7.5% | |
| M05 2-2 FCA | 7.0% | |
| M05 1-0 FCA | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).