M05 vs BAY
Mainz 05 (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 14.7% fair 6.79
Draw 15.2% fair 6.56
BAY win 70.0% fair 1.43
Expected Goals
M05
1.14
—
2.93
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.3% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.7% | fair 4.41 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-2 BAY | 8.3% | |
| M05 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| M05 0-2 BAY | 7.3% | |
| M05 0-3 BAY | 7.1% | |
| M05 1-4 BAY | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 6.3 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).