M05 vs BAY
Mainz 05 (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
M05 win 16.4% fair 6.09
Draw 16.7% fair 6.01
BAY win 66.9% fair 1.49
Expected Goals
M05
1.11
—
2.71
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.6% | fair 3.75 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-2 BAY | 8.9% | |
| M05 0-2 BAY | 8.1% | |
| M05 1-3 BAY | 8.1% | |
| M05 0-3 BAY | 7.3% | |
| M05 1-1 BAY | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).