M05 vs SVW
Mainz 05 (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
M05 win 48.7% fair 2.05
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
SVW win 27.4% fair 3.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.5% / 23.9% / 26.6%.
Expected Goals
M05
1.70
—
1.18
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 SVW | 11.3% | |
| M05 2-1 SVW | 9.6% | |
| M05 1-0 SVW | 9.5% | |
| M05 2-0 SVW | 8.1% | |
| M05 1-2 SVW | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).