M05 vs BVB
Mainz 05 (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 25.5% fair 3.93
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
BVB win 51.7% fair 1.93
Expected Goals
M05
1.15
—
1.86
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.2% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 BVB | 10.6% | |
| M05 1-2 BVB | 9.8% | |
| M05 0-1 BVB | 9.2% | |
| M05 0-2 BVB | 8.5% | |
| M05 2-1 BVB | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).