M05 vs ELV
Mainz 05 (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 50.7% fair 1.97
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
ELV win 27.6% fair 3.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.0% / 21.3% / 26.7%.
Expected Goals
M05
2.05
—
1.43
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.4% | fair 3.09 |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 2-1 ELV | 9.3% | |
| M05 1-1 ELV | 9.0% | |
| M05 2-2 ELV | 6.6% | |
| M05 2-0 ELV | 6.5% | |
| M05 1-2 ELV | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).