M05 vs SGE
Mainz 05 (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
M05 win 42.0% fair 2.38
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
SGE win 35.6% fair 2.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.7% / 22.1% / 36.1%.
Expected Goals
M05
1.83
—
1.70
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.6% | fair 3.17 |
| Both teams to score | 68.6% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 SGE | 9.1% | |
| M05 2-1 SGE | 8.4% | |
| M05 1-2 SGE | 7.7% | |
| M05 2-2 SGE | 7.1% | |
| M05 1-0 SGE | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).