M05 vs SCF
Mainz 05 (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 37.9% fair 2.64
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
SCF win 39.1% fair 2.56
Expected Goals
M05
1.64
—
1.70
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 SCF | 9.9% | |
| M05 1-2 SCF | 8.4% | |
| M05 2-1 SCF | 8.1% | |
| M05 2-2 SCF | 6.9% | |
| M05 0-1 SCF | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).