M05 vs BMG
Mainz 05 (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 51.5% fair 1.94
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
BMG win 26.7% fair 3.74
Expected Goals
M05
2.03
—
1.38
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.8% | fair 2.96 |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 2-1 BMG | 9.4% | |
| M05 1-1 BMG | 9.3% | |
| M05 2-0 BMG | 6.8% | |
| M05 1-0 BMG | 6.7% | |
| M05 2-2 BMG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).