M05 vs HSV
Mainz 05 (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 48.9% fair 2.04
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
HSV win 27.6% fair 3.63
Expected Goals
M05
1.76
—
1.24
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.2% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 HSV | 10.9% | |
| M05 2-1 HSV | 9.6% | |
| M05 1-0 HSV | 8.7% | |
| M05 2-0 HSV | 7.7% | |
| M05 1-2 HSV | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).