M05 vs TSG
Mainz 05 (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 36.6% fair 2.73
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
TSG win 41.4% fair 2.42
Expected Goals
M05
1.73
—
1.90
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.1% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.9% | fair 3.35 |
| Both teams to score | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 TSG | 8.7% | |
| M05 1-2 TSG | 8.3% | |
| M05 2-1 TSG | 7.5% | |
| M05 2-2 TSG | 7.2% | |
| M05 1-3 TSG | 5.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).