M05 vs KOE
Mainz 05 (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 47.6% fair 2.10
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
KOE win 29.6% fair 3.38
Expected Goals
M05
1.85
—
1.40
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 KOE | 10.1% | |
| M05 2-1 KOE | 9.3% | |
| M05 1-0 KOE | 7.2% | |
| M05 1-2 KOE | 7.0% | |
| M05 2-0 KOE | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).