M05 vs RBL
Mainz 05 (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 28.8% fair 3.48
Draw 21.1% fair 4.74
RBL win 50.2% fair 1.99
Expected Goals
M05
1.51
—
2.15
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.7% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.3% | fair 3.42 |
| Both teams to score | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-2 RBL | 9.0% | |
| M05 1-1 RBL | 8.4% | |
| M05 2-2 RBL | 6.8% | |
| M05 1-3 RBL | 6.4% | |
| M05 2-1 RBL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).