M05 vs B04
Mainz 05 (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
M05 win 30.7% fair 3.26
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
B04 win 46.9% fair 2.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.7% / 22.2% / 49.1%.
Expected Goals
M05
1.42
—
1.91
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.3% | fair 2.83 |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 B04 | 9.7% | |
| M05 1-2 B04 | 9.3% | |
| M05 2-1 B04 | 6.9% | |
| M05 0-1 B04 | 6.8% | |
| M05 2-2 B04 | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).