M05 vs B04
Mainz 05 (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 3-4 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
M05 win 30.3% fair 3.30
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
B04 win 47.6% fair 2.10
Expected Goals
M05
1.46
—
1.97
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 B04 | 9.3% | |
| M05 1-2 B04 | 9.2% | |
| M05 2-1 B04 | 6.8% | |
| M05 2-2 B04 | 6.7% | |
| M05 0-1 B04 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).