M05 vs SCP
Mainz 05 (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
M05 win 51.4% fair 1.95
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
SCP win 26.1% fair 3.83
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.5% / 22.0% / 24.5%.
Expected Goals
M05
1.95
—
1.26
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.9% | fair 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 SCP | 9.9% | |
| M05 2-1 SCP | 9.7% | |
| M05 1-0 SCP | 7.9% | |
| M05 2-0 SCP | 7.7% | |
| M05 3-1 SCP | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).