M05 vs S04
Mainz 05 (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 48.3% fair 2.07
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
S04 win 27.6% fair 3.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.2% / 24.1% / 26.7%.
Expected Goals
M05
1.68
—
1.18
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 S04 | 11.4% | |
| M05 1-0 S04 | 9.7% | |
| M05 2-1 S04 | 9.5% | |
| M05 2-0 S04 | 8.1% | |
| M05 0-1 S04 | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).