M05 vs FCU
Mainz 05 (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
M05 win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
FCU win 30.8% fair 3.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.3% / 24.1% / 30.6%.
Expected Goals
M05
1.65
—
1.31
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 FCU | 11.2% | |
| M05 2-1 FCU | 9.2% | |
| M05 1-0 FCU | 8.5% | |
| M05 1-2 FCU | 7.4% | |
| M05 2-0 FCU | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).