M05 vs FCU
Mainz 05 (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
M05 win 50.4% fair 1.98
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
FCU win 26.8% fair 3.73
Expected Goals
M05
1.87
—
1.27
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.3% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| M05 1-1 FCU | 10.3% | |
| M05 2-1 FCU | 9.6% | |
| M05 1-0 FCU | 8.1% | |
| M05 2-0 FCU | 7.5% | |
| M05 1-2 FCU | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: M05 goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).