SCP vs FCA
SC Paderborn (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 36.7% fair 2.72
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
FCA win 39.9% fair 2.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.3% / 23.3% / 41.4%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.54
—
1.68
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.5% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 FCA | 10.3% | |
| SCP 1-2 FCA | 8.7% | |
| SCP 2-1 FCA | 7.9% | |
| SCP 0-1 FCA | 6.7% | |
| SCP 2-2 FCA | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).