SCP vs BAY
SC Paderborn (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 13.3% fair 7.52
Draw 14.0% fair 7.15
BAY win 72.7% fair 1.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 8.3% / 12.4% / 79.3%.
Expected Goals
SCP
0.94
—
3.06
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.3% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.7% | fair 4.22 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 0-3 BAY | 8.7% | |
| SCP 0-2 BAY | 8.5% | |
| SCP 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| SCP 1-2 BAY | 8.1% | |
| SCP 0-4 BAY | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 7.6 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 7.2 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).