SCP vs SVW
SC Paderborn (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 39.9% fair 2.50
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
SVW win 35.9% fair 2.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.1% / 24.2% / 36.7%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.54
—
1.49
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 SVW | 11.1% | |
| SCP 2-1 SVW | 8.6% | |
| SCP 1-2 SVW | 8.2% | |
| SCP 1-0 SVW | 7.5% | |
| SCP 0-1 SVW | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).