SCP vs BVB
SC Paderborn (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 21.8% fair 4.59
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
BVB win 56.3% fair 1.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 17.9% / 21.6% / 60.5%.
Expected Goals
SCP
0.95
—
1.94
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 0-1 BVB | 10.8% | |
| SCP 0-2 BVB | 10.5% | |
| SCP 1-1 BVB | 10.2% | |
| SCP 1-2 BVB | 9.9% | |
| SCP 0-3 BVB | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).