SCP vs ELV
SC Paderborn (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 64% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
ELV win 33.6% fair 2.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.6% / 23.4% / 34.0%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.70
—
1.49
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 ELV | 10.4% | |
| SCP 2-1 ELV | 8.8% | |
| SCP 1-2 ELV | 7.8% | |
| SCP 1-0 ELV | 7.0% | |
| SCP 2-2 ELV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).