SCP vs SGE
SC Paderborn (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
SCP win 35.3% fair 2.83
Draw 21.6% fair 4.64
SGE win 43.2% fair 2.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.9% / 20.9% / 46.2%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.75
—
2.09
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.8% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.2% | fair 3.82 |
| Both teams to score | 72.5% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-2 SGE | 8.2% | |
| SCP 1-1 SGE | 7.8% | |
| SCP 2-2 SGE | 7.2% | |
| SCP 2-1 SGE | 6.9% | |
| SCP 1-3 SGE | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).