SCP vs SGE
SC Paderborn (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 38.4% fair 2.61
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
SGE win 39.0% fair 2.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.3% / 22.4% / 40.3%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.69
—
1.77
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 SGE | 9.4% | |
| SCP 1-2 SGE | 8.3% | |
| SCP 2-1 SGE | 8.0% | |
| SCP 2-2 SGE | 7.0% | |
| SCP 0-1 SGE | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).